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The outbreak of overseas epidemic! The global factory shutdown is coming!

April 6,2020.
The average loss in March exceeded 1,000 yuan, and the loss is expected to continue in April The downward trend of aluminum price volatility continues, and in terms of raw material costs, the prices of coal, alumina, and prebaked anodes all increased to a certain extent in February. Affected by the raw material procurement cycle, the overall cost of electrolytic aluminum in March showed a sharp increase. The national weighted average total average cost is 13,335 yuan/ton. Compared with the monthly average spot price of 12,285 yuan, the loss of ton aluminum is 1,050 yuan. If the current spot aluminum ingot price is 11,500 yuan/ton, the loss exceeds 1,800 yuan/ton. Of course, the prices of major raw materials including alumina, coal, and prebaked anodes have begun to decline in late March, and costs are expected to decline in April. However, the aluminum price in April is expected to be difficult to perform well. The average price is less than 12,000 yuan is a high probability, so the industry's loss status will continue and it may continue to expand. 

Aluminum factory's willingness to control prices and decrease shipments increase After the aluminum price fell below 10,000 in the market panic, many electrolytic aluminum companies chose not to ship, reducing the losses caused by the continued decline in aluminum prices. In the previous stage, the epidemic was effectively controlled in China, and the slow recovery of consumption made electrolytic aluminum companies feel that they will gradually get better after a while. However, with the outbreak of the overseas epidemic, the epicenter shifted from Europe to the Americas, from Italy to the United States, the market's concerns about global consumption are increasing day by day, this expectation has been broken or even dispelled. 

For example, due to market judgment reasons, a large domestic group had a long industrial chain and strong anti-risk capabilities. It gradually established inventories of finished products, slowed down shipments, and prompted high processing fees for aluminum rods and rods. With the changes in the global epidemic situation and the overall economic landscape, the judgment has been re-established, and for the enterprise at a micro level, cash flow will not slow down for a long time. The enterprise has also changed its strategy and started normal sales. 

These investigations indicate that the operation of large enterprises to establish firm stock prices or processing fees in the later period will be significantly reduced. The flow of finished products that have not formed orders on the market will gradually recover, and market prices and processing fees are likely to continue to be under pressure.