Since March, the domestic epidemic situation has been gradually effectively controlled, and the resumption of production and production in various industries has progressed steadily. Antaike conducted continuous research on the operating rate and orders of the aluminum processing industry, and learned that the operating conditions of the aluminum processing industry have improved significantly. As the backlog of orders has gradually entered the production scheduling state, the operating rate has steadily rebounded. The state of production and overproduction; however, the situation of new orders is worrying. Companies generally say that the recovery of domestic demand is not obvious. At the same time, the comprehensive outbreak of foreign epidemics has hit the export orders since the end of March.

Operation rate gradually picked up, but production loss was difficult to recover

At the end of January and February, where the epidemic was most severe, most domestic aluminum processing enterprises were basically in a state of total shutdown; in late February, with the continuous improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the aluminum processing industry gradually resumed production and resumed production. To promote the rapid recovery of the industry's overall operating rate, which has reached about 70% by the end of March, and has basically returned to its normal level. However, the improvement in production conditions in March did not make up for the loss of output in the first two months. Antaike estimated that due to the epidemic, the output of aluminum materials in the first two months was only 3.5 million tons, a significant decrease of 27.6% year-on-year. Driven by the rapid increase, China's aluminum processed material production in the first quarter totaled 6.9 million tons, still down 13% year-on-year.

The epidemic situation affects the differentiation, and the starting conditions of various aluminum materials are different

In the aluminum extrusion industry, there is a significant difference in the start-up status of the production of industrial and construction materials. The epidemic has a greater impact on the production of traditional building profiles. Since most of the downstream real estate companies are still in a shutdown state, the operating rate of building profiles is still significantly low. Taking Nanhai, Guangdong as an example, the operating rate of local large-scale building profiles companies is still less than 50% at the end of March; the demand for industrial profiles is more fragmented, and the demand performance is slightly better. .

Compared with the aluminum extrusion industry, the plate and strip consumption field is more scattered, and the demand will not be dominated by the performance of a consumption field, and the operating rate has also recovered significantly. Zhejiang and Shandong plate and strip companies said that although large customers in the automotive and other fields have been lost, small customer groups from 5G communications, 3C electronics and other fields have increased. Antaike judged through research that the average operating rate of the domestic aluminum strip industry at the end of March was around 75%.

Aluminum foil products are mainly used in packaging and durable consumption, especially in the packaging field. The "non-cyclical" feature is obvious. The increase in the demand for drugs and food caused by the epidemic has increased the market's demand for packaging aluminum foil. Therefore, at present, the mainstream domestic aluminum foil production enterprises are in good working condition and the production operation is stable. At the end of March, the average operating rate of the whole industry reached more than 80%.

Supply chain remodeling, differentiation between regions and enterprises

The reshaping of the supply chain between regions and between enterprises is a significant change brought about by the epidemic. On the one hand, due to the different epidemic situation and the degree of control in different regions, there are obvious differences in the operating rate of enterprises. Chongqing, which is less affected by the epidemic, and developed coastal economies such as Fujian, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, have strong willingness to resume production and resume production near the port area, and the speed of resumption of work has attracted the gathering of orders. At present, the operating rate of enterprises in these regions is more than 85%. Some enterprises are even over-produced and over-produced; while the average operating rate in Hebei, Henan, Jiangxi and other places is generally below 60%. On the other hand, the operating rate and orders of large enterprises with strong overall strength and ability to resist risks are even better than that of the same period last year, and they have undertaken orders that SMEs cannot temporarily execute.