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Fundamental data of the aluminum industry in May 2020

2020-06-17
1. Electrolytic aluminum

price fluctuation

  In May 2020, domestic aluminum prices continued to rise strongly. In May, the average spot price of Antaike East China aluminum ingots was 13,178 yuan/ton, up 1102 yuan/ton or 9.1% month-on-month; the average spot price of south China aluminum ingots was 13,272 yuan/ton, up 1116 yuan/ton or 9.2% month-on-month; Henan aluminum ingots The average spot price was 13,205 yuan/ton, up 1107 yuan/ton or 9.1% month-on-month.

  Starting situation

According to statistics from Antaike, in May 2020, China's electrolytic aluminum construction capacity was 40.795 million tons/year, an increase of 0.5% from the previous month, and the operating capacity was 36.519 million tons/year, an increase of 0.5% from the previous month. The newly invested electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 120,000 tons per year was mainly contributed to the commissioning of Yunnan Aluminum and Yunnan Shenhuo's new projects. In the month, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was converted to 40,000 tons/year, and the production of electrolytic cells was repaired in the early stage. Aluminum prices continued to operate at a high level, and high profits stimulated electrolytic aluminum enterprises to actively produce, and there was no news of production cuts in May.

  A Take estimated that China's electrolytic aluminum output in April was 2.997 million tons, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and the average daily output was 99.99 million tons. The operating capacity has only increased but the output of electrolytic aluminum has maintained a slight upward trend. The output of electrolytic aluminum in May is expected to be 3.105 million tons, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year, and the daily output will exceed 100,000 tons.

  Cost change

  A Take estimated that the weighted average complete cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry in May 2020 was 11,944 yuan/ton, down 346 yuan/ton from April. During the procurement and use of this raw material, the price of alumina declined, with an average monthly decline of 210 yuan/ton in the north and 180 yuan/ton in the southwest. Coal prices rebounded in May to raise self-provided electricity prices. Prebaked anode prices continued to fall under pressure. The theoretical profit level of the electrolytic aluminum industry reached 95% that month. The profitability of low-cost companies is considerable.

  Antaike expects that due to the rebound in alumina prices in June, the cost of electrolytic aluminum will rise accordingly, but aluminum prices are also running at a high level, so the high profits of the industry will continue to be maintained.

2. Alumina

price fluctuation

  In May 2020, domestic alumina prices showed a slight upward trend. Antaike's average spot alumina price in May was 2198 yuan/ton, down 26.5% year-on-year and up 2.7% month-on-month. In May, ATK's national average alumina price was 2,202 yuan/ton, down 19.8% year-on-year and 8.0% month-on-month.

  Starting situation

  According to statistics from Antaike, at the end of May, the national alumina production capacity was 87.15 million tons/year, the operating capacity was 68.97 million tons/year, and the operating rate was 79.1%, which was the same as last month. China's alumina production in May was 5.86 million tons, with an average daily output of 189,000 tons, down 0.03 million tons from the previous month. From January to May 2020, China's alumina production reached 28.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%.

  Cost change

  A Take estimates that the average weighted complete cost of alumina in China in May 2020 was 2146 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from April. Based on the average alumina spot price of 2198 yuan/ton in May, the average profitability of the domestic alumina industry in May was 52 yuan/ton. In the month, 52% of the alumina production capacity was below the price average, and the profitability of alumina enterprises in the northern region was weak.