Rotation, and electricity, which account for two-thirds of China's total aluminum consumption, have experienced a significant decline in January-April. Although the new consumption areas have performed well, after all, their share is limited. Exports are also declining. From January to May, exports of aluminum and aluminum fell by 18.7% year-on-year, of which exports in May fell by 28.6% year-on-year, and the decline was accelerating.

Where did the increased consumption go? There is only one answer, overdraft consumption. Primary aluminum supplements recycled aluminum, various rumors (collection and storage, export tariffs, reduction replacement, etc.), as well as some human factors. The above factors are superimposed, and domestic aluminum prices have risen, resulting in import of unwrought aluminum; reduction of the production of high-cost aluminum plants stopped; accelerated launch of newly built production capacity; domestic and foreign aluminum prices are seriously inverted, and aluminum export costs have increased.

Finally, the chairman of the paper expressed the outlook for the future development of the aluminum industry. In the short term, domestic primary aluminum production will continue to grow, the newly completed production capacity will be accelerated to release, imports will increase, recycled aluminum will recover, domestic supply will be surplus, and there will be inventory deflexions It may appear in the next few months; the price gap between domestic and foreign markets will be reduced, and the rapid growth of unwrought aluminum imports will be curbed; domestic consumption will increase slightly, and the decline in aluminum exports is expected to be 10-15%; aluminum prices are expected to remain Between the industry's meager profits and the average cash cost, the industry is unlikely to lose money. In the long run: The overall development pattern of China's aluminum industry remains unchanged, supply-side structural reforms will continue to advance, and consumption transformation and upgrading will accelerate; the epidemic will exacerbate international trade frictions, the trade order will become more complex, trade remedy cases will further increase, and trade frictions will become politicized The trend is more obvious; the trend of global economic integration is irreversible, and the rigid demand for aluminum products in the international market will continue for a long time; the most obvious advantage of the aluminum industry in the future will be transformed from a complete industrial chain to technology leadership; mergers and acquisitions between domestic enterprises The pace is accelerating, and international production capacity cooperation will gradually extend from upstream to downstream.

In short, the epidemic affecting the whole world is not expected to end in a short time. Various countries and regions are promulgating economic assistance policies. The appropriate stimulus has a great effect on economic recovery. However, if the stimulus transitions, it will overdraw the future and bring hidden dangers to the healthy development of the global economy. The foundation for the healthy development of China's aluminum industry (electrolytic aluminum capacity ceiling, complete industrial chain, etc.) is very strong, and there is strong domestic market demand. As long as you maintain your strength, do your own thing, and adhere to high-quality development, green development, and sustainable development, you can realize the dream of China's aluminum industry-the the world's aluminum industry power!